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Studying the Short-Run Dynamics of Inflation: Estimating a Hybrid New-Keynesian Phillips Curve for Argentina (1993-2007)

Author

Listed:
  • Laura D´Amato

    () (Central Bank of Argentina)

  • Lorena Garegnani

    () (Central Bank of Argentina)

Abstract

We estimate a “Hybrid New-Keynesian Phillips Curve” for Argentina between 1993 and 2007. We extend the model to a small open economy, considering separately the influence of nominal devaluation and foreign inflation on domestic prices. For the whole sample, we find that forward and backward-looking components are relevant although the backward-looking term weights more in determining inflation dynamics. We test for parameter stability and find a break-point in 2002 along with the regime change. In line with recent literature on trend inflation, when trend inflation increases, the influence of the output gap weakens and the curve becomes more forward-looking.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura D´Amato & Lorena Garegnani, 2009. "Studying the Short-Run Dynamics of Inflation: Estimating a Hybrid New-Keynesian Phillips Curve for Argentina (1993-2007)," BCRA Working Paper Series 200940, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcr:wpaper:200940
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    File URL: http://www.bcra.gov.ar/pdfs/investigaciones/WP_2009_40i.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2009. "Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle, and Indeterminacy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1557-1584, December.
    2. Michael T. Kiley, 2007. "Is Moderate-to-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 173-201, June.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    4. repec:sae:niesru:v:164:y::i:1:p:100-109 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Heymann & Adrián Ramos & Horacio Aguirre, 2011. "Inflation and Macroeconomic Policies in Post-convertibility Argentina," Chapters,in: The Economies of Argentina and Brazil, chapter 19 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Steffen Ahrens & Stephen Sacht, 2014. "Estimating a high-frequency New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 607-628, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Argentina; inflation dynamics; Phillips Curve; small open economy;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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