IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Previsão da Curva de Juros: um modelo estatístico com variáveis macroeconômicas

  • André Luís Leite
  • Romeu Braz Pereira Gomes Filho
  • José Valentim Machado Vicente

A variety of models has been proposed for yield curve forecasting. In this paper we present a dynamic latent factor model for Brazilian interest rate term-structure forecasting, based in three major information sources: macroeconomic variables, surveys and risk premium. We use the proposed model to produce forecasts six month ahead and we compare the results with the well known Diebold and Li (2006) and a random walk. Our forecasts appear much more accurate than the alternative models.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/port/wps186.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 186.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:186
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.