Análise da Coerência de Medidas de Risco no Mercado Brasileiro de Ações e Desenvolvimento de uma Metodologia Híbrida para o Expected Shortfall
This work seeks to analyze empirically the coherence of the VaR and the Expected Shortfall by the definition of Artzner et al. (1997) at the Brazilian Stock Market (Bovespa), calculated with three methodologies: the historical simulation, the analytical approach with EWMA volatility from RiskMetricsTM and the hybrid approach developed by Boudoukh et al. (1998). The sample includes the ten most traded stocks of Bovespa in November 2003 with prices covering the period from July 4th 1994 through October 31st 2003. For the purpose of backtesting, we use the test developed in Kupiec (1995) for the VaR, and the tail test elaborated in Berkowitz (2001) for the Expected Shortfall. The values of the Expected Shortfall, calculated with the three methodologies, are compared using the following criteria: the test developed in Pitman (1937), the simple mean error and the mean square error. The results show that the hybrid approach gives the closest Expected Shortfall to the loss that occurs when the VaR is violated.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.