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Assessing global potential output growth: April 2026

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel de Munnik
  • Kristina Hess
  • Walter Muiruri
  • Tuuli McCully
  • Faiza Noor
  • Sabreena Obaid
  • Andrew Plummer
  • Louis Poirier
  • Abeer Reza
  • Jillian Schwartz

Abstract

We present the annual update of the Bank of Canada staff estimates for global potential output growth. Growth in global potential output is expected to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon at just above 3%, underpinned by the general strength in trend productivity growth, including a boost from the adoption of artificial intelligence tools. Partially offsetting these gains are higher tariffs and persistent uncertainty about trade policy that hamper productivity and suppress capital deepening. In addition, population aging slows growth in trend labour input across all regions. These estimates served as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2026 Monetary Policy Report.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel de Munnik & Kristina Hess & Walter Muiruri & Tuuli McCully & Faiza Noor & Sabreena Obaid & Andrew Plummer & Louis Poirier & Abeer Reza & Jillian Schwartz, 2026. "Assessing global potential output growth: April 2026," Staff Analytical Papers 2026-20, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsap:26-20
    DOI: 10.34989/sap-2026-20
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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