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The impact of trading flows on Government of Canada bond prices

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Uthemann
  • Rishi Vala
  • Jun Yang

Abstract

Trading flows affect Government of Canada bond prices. Our estimates suggest a sale of 1% of the available supply of bonds typically lowers bond prices by 0.2%. From 2000 to 2025, demand from institutional investors, such as Canadian pension funds and foreign investors, explains 69% of quarterly price variation, with the remainder explained by changes in the supply of bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Uthemann & Rishi Vala & Jun Yang, 2025. "The impact of trading flows on Government of Canada bond prices," Staff Analytical Notes 2025-20, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:25-20
    DOI: 10.34989/san-2025-20
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    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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