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Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2025 update

Author

Listed:
  • Frida Adjalala
  • Felipe Alves
  • William Beaudoin
  • Hélène Desgagnés
  • Wei Dong
  • Ingomar Krohn
  • Jan David Schneider

Abstract

We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from the range assessed in 2024.

Suggested Citation

  • Frida Adjalala & Felipe Alves & William Beaudoin & Hélène Desgagnés & Wei Dong & Ingomar Krohn & Jan David Schneider, 2025. "Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2025 update," Staff Analytical Notes 2025-16, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:25-16
    DOI: 10.34989/san-2025-16
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic models; Interest rates; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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