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Are Distorted Beliefs Too Good to be True?


  • Miroslav Misina


In a recent attempt to account for the equity-premium puzzle within a representative-agent model, Cecchetti, Lam, and Mark (2000) relax the assumption of rational expectations and in its place use the assumption of distorted beliefs. The author shows that the explanatory power of the distorted beliefs model is due to an inconsistency in the model and that an attempt to remove this inconsistency removes the model’s explanatory power. Using the theory of rational beliefs, the author constructs a model in which the inconsistency is not present, compares its performance with that of the distorted beliefs model, and gives a simple interpretation of the results obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Miroslav Misina, 2003. "Are Distorted Beliefs Too Good to be True?," Staff Working Papers 03-4, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:03-4

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Francis Vitek, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Interrelationships Among Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Dispersion, and Output Growth," Staff Working Papers 02-39, Bank of Canada.
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    Cited by:

    1. Misina, Miroslav, 2006. "Equity premium with distorted beliefs: A puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1431-1440, August.
    2. Miroslav Misina, 2005. "Risk Perceptions and Attitudes," Staff Working Papers 05-17, Bank of Canada.
    3. Miroslav Misina, 2003. "What does the risk-appetite index measure?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(6), pages 1-6.

    More about this item


    Economic models; Financial markets;

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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