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Explaining the decline in childhood immunisation: socioeconomic, parental, and health system drivers

Author

Listed:
  • Leon Iusitini

    (Auckland University of Technology)

  • Gail Pacheco

    (Auckland University of Technology)

  • Thomas Schober

    (Auckland University of Technology)

Abstract

Childhood immunisation coverage in New Zealand has fallen since 2016, with the decline accelerating during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using administrative data from Stats NZ's Integrated Data Infrastructure, we examine determinants of immunisation uptake and how these have changed over time. We find that the likelihood of being fully immunised is lower among Māori children, later-born children, and children in lower-income households. We also identify weaker connection to primary care, particularly non-enrolment with a Primary Health Organisation, as an important factor associated with lower uptake. Although observed characteristics changed over time, these changes explain only a small share of the overall decline in uptake, suggesting an important role for unobserved factors. Finally, we find that parental COVID-19 vaccination and maternal vaccinations during pregnancy are strongly associated with children's uptake.

Suggested Citation

  • Leon Iusitini & Gail Pacheco & Thomas Schober, 2026. "Explaining the decline in childhood immunisation: socioeconomic, parental, and health system drivers," Working Papers 2026-02, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:aut:wpaper:2026-02
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    File URL: https://www.aut.ac.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/1097924/working-paper-26-02.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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