Integrating Water-Food-Energy Nexus with Climate Services: Modelling and Assessment for a case study in Africa

This chapter is based on the work of DAFNE project, a decision analytic framework to explore the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus in complex transboundary water resources of fast countries. In particular, we develop three geo- and temporally-referenced scenarios under economic growth and climate change in the Zambezi river basin (ZRB), which is the 4th largest river basin in Africa and located in eight different countries 1. The future scenarios are conceptually driven by the selected combination of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5). As baseline is used the SSP2 or the Business-as-usual pathway following a pattern of action that is consistent with the experience of the last century. The time horizon of the explored case study ZRB shared by eight countries is the period from 2018 to 2060. The aim of this work is to develop a better understanding of the WEF nexus by providing the input to a cost-benefit optimization model aiming to optimally allocate over time and space water-energy-food. WEF nexus is a complex situation to be modeled due to the trade-offs among the different sectors of the economy, p.es. energy production and irrigation, governance and common property challenges. The findings show that the water, energy and food requirements are expected to double during the period of interest considering only demographic development, while economic development and international trade will put an additional burden to the supply chain in meeting those goals.