The role of uncertainty in investment: An examination using residential real estate data from fifteen European countries

The neoclassical investment model predicts that only systematic risk affects the rate of investment through developed asset price, whereas the option-based investment model predicts that total investment risk directly affects investment behaviour. This study empirically tests the total uncertainty-investment relationship using aggregate construction data on residential real estate from fifteen European countries. We specify and empirically estimate a structural model of asset-market equilibrium and, after controlling for built-asset price, construction cost, expected rent, interest rate levels, expected growth of real rents and systematic risk, we find evidence of an independent role for total uncertainty in the supply of residential real estate. In particular, panel estimation shows that total uncertainty is significantly negatively related to the rate of investment across all sample countries included in our study. This finding appears robust to two alternative measures that we use to proxy aggregate investment. Supplementary analysis suggests that our main finding is unaffected by the global recession of 2008-2009 and the recent Covid pandemic. We conclude that our empirical results provide support for the option-based model and, thus, for the notion that the ability to delay decisions in the face of uncertainty and irreversibility are important aspects of investment in real estate.