Lessons from Türkiye: Modeling Sustainable Reconstruction Demand in Earthquake-Impacted Real Estate Markets

The catastrophic consequences of the February 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye have accentuated the pressing necessity for resilient and sustainable reconstruction in disaster-stricken regions. This research paper investigates the potential for low carbon investments in the real estate sector to catalyze the recovery and redevelopment of earthquake-affected areas. By employing demand modeling techniques and scrutinizing key market indicators, the study endeavors to identify investment opportunities that can yield both economic and environmental benefits. The paper leverages a comprehensive dataset encompassing 81 cities from 2013 to 2024, facilitating a robust analysis of residential market dynamics, energy consumption patterns, and socioeconomic factors. Through the application of random-effects GLS regression, the research elucidates the determinants of housing demand and the feasibility of low carbon interventions in post-disaster settlements. The findings provide invaluable insights for policymakers, investors, and real estate professionals aspiring to promote sustainable and resilient reconstruction efforts. By emphasizing the potential for low carbon investments to stimulate economic recovery while concurrently mitigating climate change impacts, this paper contributes to the burgeoning body of knowledge on green real estate and disaster risk management.