Air Passengers and Economic Returns: A Time Series Study on Revenue and Rental Flows in Atatürk and Esenboa Airports

This paper examines the impact of increasing passenger numbers on airport rental income and total revenue. The growing complexity of investigating this relationship has made it challenging to accurately forecast trends in the aviation industry. Previous research has primarily relied on the assumption that revenue increases in tandem with passenger traffic. To conduct a preliminary analysis, monthly data from 2015 to 2018 was collected for two major Turkish airports: Atatürk Airport in Istanbul (AHL) and Esenboa Airport in Ankara (ESB). A summary of the statistical findings reveals that AHL's revenue is approximately 6.8 times higher than ESB's, and its rental income is about 7 times greater. This stark disparity underscores the significant economic advantage of higher passenger volumes, as evidenced by AHL generating substantially higher revenue and rental income per passenger compared to ESB. By comparing these two airports, the study aims to test the cointegration and causality between passenger numbers and airport revenue, as well as rental income, while highlighting the differences in their capacities and operational methodologies. The findings of this research will provide valuable insights and serve as a guide for airport management, real estate professionals, and other stakeholders in the aviation industry, facilitating informed decision-making and strategic planning.