The real estate clock. Where is Poland at?

Determining the relationship between the economy, the banking sector and the real estate market is a problem that is of interest to researchers around the world. Since the beginning of the 20th century, scholars have been formulating theories about the cyclicality of the real estate market. Burns [1935] was one of the first researchers to analyze the causes of their formation. Other scientists analyzed the lengths of the individual phases. It has been proven that the cycles are influenced by, among others, the availability of financing for housing investments, population changes, problems in the construction industry. An important role is also played by government housing programmes, which stabilize the level of investment in the economy. In indirectly the programmes stabilize the labor market also. One of the methods of studying the changes taking place in the real estate market is to analyze the parameters on the clock face of the real estate market. The main purpose of the presentation is to determine the current place on the clock face of the real estate market in which Poland is located. The study analyzes economic indicators of the country and parameters of the construction market as well as information from the banking sector. As a result of a long-term analysis of parameters that may affect disruptions in the business cycle and the real estate market cycle, in the presentation will indicate the moment of transition to the next phase on the clock face. It is a kind of continuation of an important thread of research started many years ago by other researchers around the world. To identify the course of the cycle, an analysis of real estate price dynamics and an analysis of the volatility of macroeconomic and market factors were used in Poland.