The spatial implications of Portcentric warehousing

Over the last twenty years, investment in European industrial property has been heavily influenced by logistics – in particular optimisation of the location of warehouses. As demand for consumer goods burgeoned, retailers began to exert more power in the whole supply chain to ensure the efficient flow of goods from manufacturer to consumer. The spatial implication of this was a shift from a pattern of warehousing determined by the production of goods to one determined by the pattern of consumption. The location of warehouses was optimised around the servicing of retail outlets.Investors and asset managers bought into this structural shift and, despite their specialist nature, logistics warehouses have become a key component in any multi-sector investment portfolio. From the perspective of value, the highest numbers are seen in so called logistics hotspots identified by the optimisation process.Across Europe the logistics process is dominated by road transport. However, fuel costs and the growing importance of the green agenda have forced logisticians to reappraise the transport modes used. Concurrently, investment in new infrastructure, particularly in eastern Europe, is redrawing the boundaries of what is possible. The optimisation of warehouse location is an ongoing process and one which has a direct impact upon value when hotspots move. This paper looks at the impact of the rise of portcentric warehousing upon the value of those port locations themselves but also upon the investment values seen in existing logistics hotspots.Initially the paper will set out the supply chain context to warehouse location identifying the main trade routes and points of entry.The paper will examine the different models for optimising logistics based upon different combinations of transport modes and examine their spatial impacts in terms of warehouse location. Having identified the current hotspots values will be quantified in each location. Overlaid on this picture will be optimisation based upon a portcentric model where warehousing is developed at or close to ports of import and export. The future impact upon values will be explored using different scenarios.