The Concept of Latvian Industrial Property Market Development Model in Context of Strategic Planning

The purpose of the Article is to introduce the worked out model on the Latvian industrial real estate market development forecasting for the professional auditorium. The originality/value of the Paper is that the proposed model anticipates the high quality (A class) industrial property stock and the manufacturing branch potential capacity applying the projections of the European climate change data. The research is supplemented with the results from the industrial regional specialization analysis recently made for the Baltics. The main findings are that the model predicts the manufacturing value added dynamics planned in the Latvian National Program until 2020 conforming the impetuous development scenario that is too ambitious at the current industrial market development stage of an extremely low regional specialisation level in Latvia. Although the weighted average scenario's projected manufacturing capacity of 1.01 compound average annual growth rate corresponds to 1.72 times larger A class industrial property stock in 2020 in Latvia that expects the sufficient capital inflows and increase of the multinational enterprises business activity. The use of the ENSEMBLES project's complex data results, logical approach and comparisons, the system and dynamic row's analyses, calculations of the Gini coefficient on regional specialization supported by the empirical evidence on the scientific and business literature review is a complex of the methods applied in the research.