Estimating the effect of financial crisis on expected returns and the attractiveness of real estate

The last year has seen financial crisis, and the threat of further more dramatic financial events across Europe dominate much of the global economic news. This is having an increasing impact on the commercial real estate market. Many participants are wondering about how this will feed through to real estate performance both directly within Europe and also the global transmission mechanism. In this paper from a base case view of Europe muddling through the current sovereign debt crisis we will look at the impact and implications of a Euro zone break up on real estate markets around the world. Most importantly from both a country and market position we will look at the transmission mechanism of a financial crisis through global economic markets. The paper then considers the consequences of these economic and financial convulsions on real estate markets. It will look at both the relative magnitude and the sensitivity of real estate markets to financial crisis and the implied effect on overall performance. Looking at the retail and office market, it will then consider the impact of subdued real estate returns in a financially volatile market, and thus the relative attractiveness of real estate as an investment vehicle. This paper concludes by providing insight into the magnitude of the impacts and the characteristics investors should look for when considering different market characteristics in differing economic scenarios.