Transmission Of External Shocks To Real Estate Markets And Implications For Asset Allocation: Recent Experience For Australia And New Zealand

The onset of the global financial crisis (GFC) has triggered a series of external shocks across global investment markets and the global macroeconomy. Importantly, the nature of these shocks has been different across global property markets in terms of magnitude and duration. This paper examines the transmission of external shocks associated with the GFC on selected global property markets. More specifically, the impact of these shocks on the Australian and New Zealand property markets is compared to those for the US and UK. It is found that impact of these shocks across selected property markets is significantly different. Factors contributing to this variation include the strength of the local economy, the role intervention and the robustness of the financial/banking system. The paper further explores the implication of such shocks on the investment asset allocation framework. Importantly, it highlights how these shocks will significantly distort the strategic asset allocation process, especially for property.