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The Real Estate Risk In Central And Eastern European Office Markets: Thinking Too Big?

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  • Frédéric Laurin
  • John-John D’Argensio

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the evolution of office market risks and property prices in Central and Eastern European (CEE) cities since the transition period. We develop a methodology assessing if office property markets have been accurately evaluated in CEE cities, using as a benchmark the past evolution of the office markets in Western European cities. We are then able to estimate a predicted property price and capitalization rate for each CEE cites, given their actual real estate and economic conditions. Results show that investorsí valuations are in fact not too far apart from the predicted value based only on real estate and economic fundamentals. The macroeconomic environment, however, seems to have a stronger effect on property prices in CEE than real estate factors, contrary to Western European cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric Laurin & John-John D’Argensio, 2010. "The Real Estate Risk In Central And Eastern European Office Markets: Thinking Too Big?," ERES eres2010_286, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2010_286
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    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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