Estimating Real Estate Cycle Turning Points

In the midst of the current economic crisis, it is likely that there will be a further consideration of the linkages between different parts of the business/financial system including a strong focus on real estate, arising from the role of the US prime lending fiasco in the current turmoil. The research area of cycles ñ both business and more specific real estate cycles ñ is likely to become more popular again. While real estate cannot be separated from the broader economy and there is a moderate literature looking at the relationship between real estate cycles and business cycles, this paper will focus on questions relating, in the main, to Real Estate Cycles. What are the dynamics of the real estate cycle? Is there a relationship between the real estate cycles for the same property class in different locations? Is there a relationship between the real estate cycles for different property classes in the same location? Can this information be used to estimate the (future) timing of turning points in property markets? These questions will be considered using data from the Property Directions Survey which has been conducted semi-annually in Australia over the last 10 years covering all major locations and for all classes of property. Data from other locations will also be considered.