Stock-Flow-Trend Analysis Of Capital Formation In Buildings 1960-2020

Since the seventies the Dutch non-residential construction output is cycling with an upward trend to an all times peak in 2001. The upswing after 1983 with an interruption in the early nineties was for facilitation of the growing service sector and was in relation with growing ICT-activity and innovation of the economy. Based on the construction statistics the investment in new buildings and the investment activity within the existing stock are analysed and projected for the period 1960-2020. This will be presented for the whole Dutch economy and for separate economic sectors (agrarian, industry, services and non-market). Otherwise investment in buildings is split into investment for expansion and investment for renewal of stock. Within the macro trend scenario investment for expansion is linked to the increase of the GDP with correction for rising building productivity. The macro trend scenario for investment in renewal is based on GDP level and the revealed and expected turnover period of investment in buildings. Trends based on GDP links are compared with trends based on physical indicators (for instance stock in square meters) and with trends based on functional indicators (for instance office employment x square meters per fte). The stock of buildings is permanently in transition due to a thrive for economics of scale and rising productivity, in relation with embedded ICT investments and due to a shift of economic activity within the sectors agriculture, industry, services and non-market and shifts between these sectors. Further investment for renewal of the stock of buildings depends on general economic growth, on the turnover period of former investments and on technological development and innovation. The actual problem of choice of upgrading of the older parts of the stock against replacement according to nowadays requirements has to be answered by combining economic, technological, functional, financial, sustainable and environmental considerations.