A Real Estate Market Observatory For Public Urban Planning

The transformation of the urbanised territory is growingly produced by the activities of Real Estate developers, who have to follow the legislative frame given by the existing Urban Planning schemes referred to the development area. This process seems to have the public planning at the top of this decisional framework. The Real Estate developers, though, have also another reference point along with the planning permits, that is the economic result of the operations, depending as it is, from the encounter among the proposed product (real property of some kind) and the market's demand. This dual reference, especially in years of Îdifficult marketsÌ (i. e. strongly negative towards those products not required by demand), imposes on the above companies and entrepreneurs the dilemma of following two equally strong indications, the Planning schemes and the existing market demand, not necessarily coinciding and sometimes divergent with each other. In Italy when this contrast exists, often due to the rigid and long lasting General Communal Urban Plans, it is common use to ask for special permits that differ from the more general existing Communal Plan, permits that are long to obtain and that produce a type of urban development without a general comprehensive scheme, and allow the transformation for only the most convenient parts of the urban territory. A similar process applies when a Land Use Plan (Bestemmingsplan) has to be changed in The Netherlands, through the rules depicted in ÏArticle 19ó. An Urban Plan that considers the economics of the territory is not contrasting the public interest, on the contrary it might be more efficient and actually more effectively implemented (if at all) by the developers. A planning system aware of how the market is behaving can be an active player in that market, not only an observer or a referee. The scope of this research is to acquire the more effective and useful techniques to study and forecast the Real Estate Market, as developed by, or for, the Private sector (Real Estate companies, Developers and institutional investors), and see if this / these techniques can be used to enhance what can be eventually called a Î Market Aware (urban) PlanningÌ1 for the use of the Public Sector. The goal is to produce a tool (a Real Estate Markets Observatory) that can allow the evaluation and implementing of Territorial Plans or Programs, so that they may be aligned (or eventually contrast it, but at least as an 'aware' decision) with what the Real Estate market is and will be in the selected area.