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Cities and political violence in West Africa

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  • Steven M. Radil
  • Olivier J. Walther

Abstract

This paper examines how political violence in West Africa is distributed between urban agglomerations and their surrounding areas using spatially disaggregated conflict and population data. Covering seventeen countries from 2012 to mid-2025, the analysis shows that political violence remains clearly tied to cities and their peripheries with the majority of violence occurring within and around urban agglomerations. Large cities record the highest number of incidents within their boundaries, while smaller towns, which are more frequently situated near borders, typically experience higher levels of violence outside their boundaries. However, urban-centric violence has also declined since 2012, indicating a progressive ruralization of conflict. These findings provide important regional context to the urbanization of conflict narrative by showing that West African insurgent movements use both urban and rural environments strategically. They also underscore the ongoing vulnerability of peripheral populations and the need for mobile and community-based security approaches outside major cities. Finally, they highlight the importance of strengthening border infrastructure, transport networks, and civic institutions as tools of both development and security.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven M. Radil & Olivier J. Walther, 2026. "Cities and political violence in West Africa," Papers 2608.03570, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2608.03570
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier J. Walther & Steven M. Radil & David G. Russell & Marie Trémolières, 2023. "Introducing the Spatial Conflict Dynamics Indicator of Political Violence," Terrorism and Political Violence, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 533-552, April.
    2. Dani Nedal & Megan Stewart & Michael Weintraub, 2020. "Urban Concentration and Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(6), pages 1146-1171, July.
    3. Olivier J. Walther & Steven M. Radil & David G. Russell, 2025. "The Spatial Conflict Life Cycle in Africa," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(2), pages 456-477, February.
    4. Elfversson, Emma, 2025. "Contentious cities? Urban growth and electoral violence in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    5. Steven M. Radil & Ian Irmischer & Olivier J. Walther, 2022. "Contextualizing the Relationship Between Borderlands and Political Violence: A Dynamic Space-Time Analysis in North and West Africa," Journal of Borderlands Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 253-271, March.
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