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Optimum Output Long Short-Term Memory Cell for High-Frequency Trading Forecasting

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  • Adamantios Ntakaris
  • Moncef Gabbouj
  • Juho Kanniainen

Abstract

High-frequency trading requires fast data processing without information lags for precise stock price forecasting. This high-paced stock price forecasting is usually based on vectors that need to be treated as sequential and time-independent signals due to the time irregularities that are inherent in high-frequency trading. A well-documented and tested method that considers these time-irregularities is a type of recurrent neural network, named long short-term memory neural network. This type of neural network is formed based on cells that perform sequential and stale calculations via gates and states without knowing whether their order, within the cell, is optimal. In this paper, we propose a revised and real-time adjusted long short-term memory cell that selects the best gate or state as its final output. Our cell is running under a shallow topology, has a minimal look-back period, and is trained online. This revised cell achieves lower forecasting error compared to other recurrent neural networks for online high-frequency trading forecasting tasks such as the limit order book mid-price prediction as it has been tested on two high-liquid US and two less-liquid Nordic stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Adamantios Ntakaris & Moncef Gabbouj & Juho Kanniainen, 2023. "Optimum Output Long Short-Term Memory Cell for High-Frequency Trading Forecasting," Papers 2304.09840, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2304.09840
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wei Bao & Jun Yue & Yulei Rao, 2017. "A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Adamantios Ntakaris & Giorgio Mirone & Juho Kanniainen & Moncef Gabbouj & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2019. "Feature Engineering for Mid-Price Prediction with Deep Learning," Papers 1904.05384, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2019.
    3. Justin A. Sirignano, 2019. "Deep learning for limit order books," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 549-570, April.
    4. Sidra Mehtab & Jaydip Sen, 2020. "Stock Price Prediction Using CNN and LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models," Papers 2010.13891, arXiv.org.
    5. Justin Sirignano & Rama Cont, 2019. "Universal features of price formation in financial markets: perspectives from deep learning," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 1449-1459, September.
    6. Fischer, Thomas & Krauss, Christopher, 2018. "Deep learning with long short-term memory networks for financial market predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(2), pages 654-669.
    7. Ymir Mäkinen & Juho Kanniainen & Moncef Gabbouj & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2019. "Forecasting jump arrivals in stock prices: new attention-based network architecture using limit order book data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(12), pages 2033-2050, December.
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