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Efficient Black-Box Importance Sampling for VaR and CVaR Estimation

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  • Anand Deo
  • Karthyek Murthy

Abstract

This paper considers Importance Sampling (IS) for the estimation of tail risks of a loss defined in terms of a sophisticated object such as a machine learning feature map or a mixed integer linear optimisation formulation. Assuming only black-box access to the loss and the distribution of the underlying random vector, the paper presents an efficient IS algorithm for estimating the Value at Risk and Conditional Value at Risk. The key challenge in any IS procedure, namely, identifying an appropriate change-of-measure, is automated with a self-structuring IS transformation that learns and replicates the concentration properties of the conditional excess from less rare samples. The resulting estimators enjoy asymptotically optimal variance reduction when viewed in the logarithmic scale. Simulation experiments highlight the efficacy and practicality of the proposed scheme

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  • Anand Deo & Karthyek Murthy, 2021. "Efficient Black-Box Importance Sampling for VaR and CVaR Estimation," Papers 2106.10236, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2106.10236
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexander J. McNeil & Rüdiger Frey & Paul Embrechts, 2015. "Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools Revised edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10496.
    2. Anand Deo & Karthyek Murthy, 2020. "Optimizing tail risks using an importance sampling based extrapolation for heavy-tailed objectives," Papers 2008.09818, arXiv.org.
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