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Libor at crossroads: stochastic switching detection using information theory quantifiers

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  • Aurelio F. Bariviera
  • M. Belen Guercio
  • Lisana B. Martinez
  • Osvaldo A. Rosso

Abstract

This paper studies the 28 time series of Libor rates, classified in seven maturities and four currencies), during the last 14 years. The analysis was performed using a novel technique in financial economics: the Complexity-Entropy Causality Plane. This planar representation allows the discrimination of different stochastic and chaotic regimes. Using a temporal analysis based on moving windows, this paper unveals an abnormal movement of Libor time series arround the period of the 2007 financial crisis. This alteration in the stochastic dynamics of Libor is contemporary of what press called "Libor scandal", i.e. the manipulation of interest rates carried out by several prime banks. We argue that our methodology is suitable as a market watch mechanism, as it makes visible the temporal redution in informational efficiency of the market.

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  • Aurelio F. Bariviera & M. Belen Guercio & Lisana B. Martinez & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2016. "Libor at crossroads: stochastic switching detection using information theory quantifiers," Papers 1603.02874, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1603.02874
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Zhengli & Shang, Pengjian & Wang, Yuanyuan, 2020. "Characterization of time series through information quantifiers," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
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    3. Duarte Queirós, Sílvio M. & Anteneodo, Celia, 2016. "Complexity in quantitative finance and economics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-2.
    4. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Font-Ferrer, Alejandro & Sorrosal-Forradellas, M. Teresa & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2019. "An information theory perspective on the informational efficiency of gold price," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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