IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Network Risk and Forecasting Power in Phase-Flipping Dynamical Networks


  • B. Podobnik
  • A. Majdandzic
  • C. Curme
  • Z. Qiao
  • W. -X. Zhou
  • H. E. Stanley
  • B. Li


In order to model volatile real-world network behavior, we analyze phase-flipping dynamical scale-free network in which nodes and links fail and recover. We investigate how stochasticity in a parameter governing the recovery process affects phase-flipping dynamics, and find the probability that no more than q% of nodes and links fail. We derive higher moments of the fractions of active nodes and active links, $f_n(t)$ and $f_{\ell}(t)$, and define two estimators to quantify the level of risk in a network. We find hysteresis in the correlations of $f_n(t)$ due to failures at the node level, and derive conditional probabilities for phase-flipping in networks. We apply our model to economic and traffic networks.

Suggested Citation

  • B. Podobnik & A. Majdandzic & C. Curme & Z. Qiao & W. -X. Zhou & H. E. Stanley & B. Li, 2014. "Network Risk and Forecasting Power in Phase-Flipping Dynamical Networks," Papers 1401.7450,
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1401.7450

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Robert L. Hetzel, 1991. "Too big to fail : origins, consequences, and outlook," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Yao, Can-Zhong & Lin, Ji-Nan & Zheng, Xu-Zhou & Liu, Xiao-Feng, 2015. "The study of RMB exchange rate complex networks based on fluctuation mode," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 359-376.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1401.7450. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.