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Delusion and Deception in Large Infrastructure Projects: Two Models for Explaining and Preventing Executive Disaster


  • Bent Flyvbjerg
  • Massimo Garbuio
  • Dan Lovallo


The Economist recently reported that infrastructure spending is the largest it is ever been as a share of world GDP. With $22 trillion in projected investments over the next ten years in emerging economies alone, the magazine calls it the "biggest investment boom in history." The efficiency of infrastructure planning and execution is therefore particularly important at present. Unfortunately, the private sector, the public sector and private/public sector partnerships have a dismal record of delivering on large infrastructure cost and performance promises. This paper explains why and how to solve the problem.

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  • Bent Flyvbjerg & Massimo Garbuio & Dan Lovallo, 2013. "Delusion and Deception in Large Infrastructure Projects: Two Models for Explaining and Preventing Executive Disaster," Papers 1303.7403,
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1303.7403

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hugosson, Muriel Beser, 2005. "Quantifying uncertainties in a national forecasting model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 531-547, July.
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