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Cross-correlations between volume change and price change

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  • Boris Podobnik
  • Davor Horvatic
  • Alexander M. Petersen
  • H. Eugene Stanley

Abstract

In finance, one usually deals not with prices but with growth rates $R$, defined as the difference in logarithm between two consecutive prices. Here we consider not the trading volume, but rather the volume growth rate $\tilde R$, the difference in logarithm between two consecutive values of trading volume. To this end, we use several methods to analyze the properties of volume changes $|\tilde R|$, and their relationship to price changes $|R|$. We analyze $14,981$ daily recordings of the S\&P 500 index over the 59-year period 1950--2009, and find power-law {\it cross-correlations\/} between $|R|$ and $|\tilde R|$ using detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA). We introduce a joint stochastic process that models these cross-correlations. Motivated by the relationship between $| R|$ and $|\tilde R|$, we estimate the tail exponent ${\tilde\alpha}$ of the probability density function $P(|\tilde R|) \sim |\tilde R|^{-1 -\tilde\alpha}$ for both the S\&P 500 index as well as the collection of 1819 constituents of the New York Stock Exchange Composite index on 17 July 2009. As a new method to estimate $\tilde\alpha$, we calculate the time intervals $\tau_q$ between events where $\tilde R>q$. We demonstrate that $\bar\tau_q$, the average of $\tau_q$, obeys $\bar \tau_q \sim q^{\tilde\alpha}$. We find $\tilde \alpha \approx 3$. Furthermore, by aggregating all $\tau_q$ values of 28 global financial indices, we also observe an approximate inverse cubic law.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris Podobnik & Davor Horvatic & Alexander M. Petersen & H. Eugene Stanley, 2010. "Cross-correlations between volume change and price change," Papers 1011.2674, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1011.2674
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1011.2674
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    Cited by:

    1. khoojine, Arash Sioofy & Han, Dong, 2019. "Network analysis of the Chinese stock market during the turbulence of 2015–2016 using log-returns, volumes and mutual information," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1091-1109.

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