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Проверка нового способа оценки нейтральной процентной ставки // Testing a new way to estimate a neutral interest rate

Author

Listed:
  • Темиргалиев Куаныш // Temirgaliyev Kuanysh

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

Abstract

Данная статья посвящена применению метода оценки нейтральной процентной ставки, предложенного Л. Бенати (2023), к данным Казахстана. Метод основывается на наблюдении Л. Бенати (2020) об отношении скорости обращения денежного агрегата М1 и краткосрочных ставок. Протестированы условия необходимые для применения метода в Казахстане. На текущий момент использование метода без модификации не позволяет получить реалистичный уровень оценки, однако косвенные факторы указывают на то, что скорость обращения несет в себе информацию о движении нейтральной ставки. // This paper is devoted to the application of the neutral interest rate estimation method proposed by L. Benati (2023) to the data of Kazakhstan. The method is based on the observation of L. Benati (2020) on the ratio of the velocity of circulation of the M1 monetary aggregate and short-term rates. The conditions necessary for the application of the method in Kazakhstan have been tested. Currently, using the method without modification does not allow us to obtain a realistic assessment level, however, indirect factors indicate that, that the rate of circulation carries information about the movement of the neutral rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Темиргалиев Куаныш // Temirgaliyev Kuanysh, 2026. "Проверка нового способа оценки нейтральной процентной ставки // Testing a new way to estimate a neutral interest rate," Working Papers #2026-2, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    • Handle: RePEc:aob:wpaper:70
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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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