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Incorporando O Atraso Escolar E As Características Sócio- Demográficas Nas Taxas De Transição Educacional: Um Modelo De Fluxo Escolar

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  • Elaine Toldo Pazello
  • Reynaldo Fernandes
  • Fabiana de Felício

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to introduce a model of student flows. Starting with two years of the Brazilian Household Survey PNAD (2002 and 2003), school transition rates are identified for primary school and high school. These rates are used to project the education- related data in PNAD until 2009. The main contribution of the paper is to condition transition rates on schooling delay, unlike previous studies, which relied on a Markovian model. Furthermore, demographics are also taken into account. The estimates suggest that first grade entrance and approved rates decrease with schooling delay and increase with more educated parents. The projections indicate a smaller enrollment in the early grades of primary school. This may be the consequence of the primary school universalization, which has taken place in the last decade. The projections also indicate a significant rise in enrollment in high school.

Suggested Citation

  • Elaine Toldo Pazello & Reynaldo Fernandes & Fabiana de Felício, 2005. "Incorporando O Atraso Escolar E As Características Sócio- Demográficas Nas Taxas De Transição Educacional: Um Modelo De Fluxo Escolar," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 155, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:155
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    JEL classification:

    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

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