Depopulation in the Apennines in the 20th century: an empirical investigation

We propose an empirical investigation of the population dynamics between 1931 and 2011 in a mountain area in central Italy. The main novelty of our work is the usage of sub-municipal data, which makes it possible to disentangle several drivers of the overall depopulation trend. All these factors had been considered previously by separate strands of literature, but never jointly, as we do. One of our most interesting results is that different factors operate in different historical periods. Therefore, we use a flexible statistical strategy by which we divide the sample in four different 20-year spans and adopt a different statistical model for each. Another notable result is that an appropriate quantitative description of the phenomenon must take into account the disappearance of inhabited centres separately from their size in terms on inhabitants. In order to implement "place-based" policies in remote mountain areas, the most meaningful unit to consider as the foundation of social interactions is sub-municipal. Moreover, the concept of community is crucial for a systematic understanding of population change and related policy actions.