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Introducing the Portuguese Macro-Fiscal (PMF) model: A framework for projecting the Portuguese Economy


  • Nuno Goncalves
  • Andre Moreira


This paper gives an overview of the current version of the Portuguese Macro-Fiscal (PMF) model, an estimated quarterly macroeconometric model of the Portuguese economy that is the central tool used by the Portuguese Public Finance Council (CFP) for producing its medium-term macroeconomic projections. The specification of the macro side of the model broadly follows those developed by several Eurosystem central banks, in the tradition of the neoclassical synthesis, appropriately adapted to the Portuguese case. The key extension to this framework – one that reflects CFP’s mission – has been the inclusion of a rich, disaggregated fiscal block. The structure and specification of the model are briefly discussed, and its properties are illustrated through shock simulation exercises.

Suggested Citation

  • Nuno Goncalves & Andre Moreira, 2018. "Introducing the Portuguese Macro-Fiscal (PMF) model: A framework for projecting the Portuguese Economy," CFP Working Papers 01/2018, Portuguese Public Finance Council.
  • Handle: RePEc:alf:wpaper:2018-01

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    File Function: First version, 2018
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    More about this item


    macroeconometric model; forecast; simulation; Portugal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment


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