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Housing market dynamics in Kazakhstan: An estimated DSGE model

Author

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  • Akbobek Akhmediyarova

    (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University)

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the drivers of housing price fluctuations in Kazakhstan using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with the housing market. We estimate the model with Bayesian methods using the data for the period from 2010Q1 to 2020Q4. We find that housing prices are primarily driven by housing preference shocks, rather than by price mark up disturbances or monetary policy shocks. We identify strong housing wealth effects and show that housing preference shocks of borrowers explain a vast part of the consumption volatility. Besides, we find that pension withdrawal policy plays a small role in determining the business-cycle fluctuations of Kazakhstan in the long-term period. Overall, the technology shock is key in explaining the variance in GDP of Kazakhstan, while the variation in inflation rate is mainly explained by monetary policy and foreign demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Akbobek Akhmediyarova, 2021. "Housing market dynamics in Kazakhstan: An estimated DSGE model," NAC Analytica Working Paper 19, NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University, revised May 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajx:wpaper:19
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE; Housing market; Bayesian estimation; Kazakhstan.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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