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A Multicountry Macroeconometric Model for the Eurasian Economic Union

Author

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  • Aizhan Bolatbayeva

    (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University)

Abstract

This paper introduces a multicountry macroeconometric model for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The model consists of five single-country models of the union member states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. The purpose of the research is to explain the structural relationship between the economies, evaluate the impact of internal and external shocks, and analyze the transmission mechanism of shocks across countries. The single-country models are linked to each other by the equations of bilateral trade and bilateral exchange rate. We find that the model fits actual data on main macroeconomic indicators of the countries in a dynamic ex-post simulation over 2004-2018. We also evaluate the effect of world trade and monetary policy shocks on the economies of the member states of the EAEU.

Suggested Citation

  • Aizhan Bolatbayeva, 2020. "A Multicountry Macroeconometric Model for the Eurasian Economic Union," NAC Analytica Working Paper 11, NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University, revised Nov 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajx:wpaper:11
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EAEU; Cowles Commission approach; Structural macroeconomic model; Simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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