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From Weimar to Today: Mapping Populism Across German Parliaments

Author

Listed:
  • Paul C. Behler

    (University of Bonn)

  • Laurenz Guenther

    (Bocconi University, Toulouse School of Economics)

Abstract

While the recent rise of populism has led many scholars to study populism in the modern era, its long-run evolution remains underexplored. This paper analyzes German parliamentary speeches to study populism over the long run, covering the Weimar Republic (1918–1933) and the united Federal Republic (1991–today). We employ a tailored and validated machine learning model to measure populism and dissect it into anti-elitism and people-centrism. We find that in both republics, populism is similarly common, similarly distributed across the ideological spectrum, and increases over time. Moreover, in both states, left-wing parties were initially the most populist group but were eventually overtaken by right-wing parties. However, we find a difference in the form of populism: in the Weimar Republic, the increase in populism is driven by a surge in the anti-elitism of right-wing parties, while in the Federal Republic, it is due to a general rise in people-centrism.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul C. Behler & Laurenz Guenther, 2025. "From Weimar to Today: Mapping Populism Across German Parliaments," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 381, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:381
    as

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    File URL: https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkdps/ECONtribute_381_2025.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Margaret Canovan, 1999. "Trust the People! Populism and the Two Faces of Democracy," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 47(1), pages 2-16, March.
    2. Di Cocco, Jessica & Monechi, Bernardo, 2022. "How Populist are Parties? Measuring Degrees of Populism in Party Manifestos Using Supervised Machine Learning," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 311-327, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    JEL classification:

    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • C89 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other

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