IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ajf/louvlr/2022005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Unpacking the black box of ICO white papers: a topic modeling approach

Author

Listed:
  • Pastwa, Anna M.
  • Shrestha, Prabal
  • Thewissen, James

    (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/LFIN, Belgium)

  • Torsin, Wouter

Abstract

We apply a novel topic modeling method to map Initial Coin Offerings’ (ICOs’) white paper thematic content to analyze its information value to investors. Using a sentence-based topic modeling algorithm, we determine and empirically quantify 30 topics in an extensive collection of 5,210 ICO white papers between 2015 and 2021. We find that the algorithm produces a semantically meaningful set of topics, which significantly improves the model performance in identifying successful projects. The most value-relevant topics concern the technical features of the ICO. However, we find that white paper’s informativeness substantially diminishes after the token is listed. Moreover, we show that credibility-enhancing mechanisms (i.e., regulations and ICO analysts) reinforce the information value of ICO white papers. Overall, our results suggest that the topics discussed in white papers and the attention devoted to each topic are useful ICO performance indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Pastwa, Anna M. & Shrestha, Prabal & Thewissen, James & Torsin, Wouter, 2022. "Unpacking the black box of ICO white papers: a topic modeling approach," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2022005, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    • Handle: RePEc:ajf:louvlr:2022005
    Note: In: Journal of Corporate Finance, 2022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James R. Hines, 2010. "Treasure Islands," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 103-126, Fall.
    2. Patrick Puhani, 2000. "The Heckman Correction for Sample Selection and Its Critique," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 53-68, February.
    3. Benedetti, Hugo & Kostovetsky, Leonard, 2021. "Digital Tulips? Returns to investors in initial coin offerings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Zhang, Shuyu & Aerts, Walter & Lu, Liping & Pan, Huifeng, 2019. "Readability of token whitepaper and ICO first-day return," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 58-61.
    5. Mahmoud El‐Haj & Paul Rayson & Martin Walker & Steven Young & Vasiliki Simaki, 2019. "In search of meaning: Lessons, resources and next steps for computational analysis of financial discourse," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3-4), pages 265-306, March.
    6. Ulf Brüggemann & Aditya Kaul & Christian Leuz & Ingrid M. Werner, 2018. "The Twilight Zone: OTC Regulatory Regimes and Market Quality," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 898-942.
    7. Ajay Agrawal & Christian Catalini & Avi Goldfarb, 2014. "Some Simple Economics of Crowdfunding," Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 63-97.
    8. Anton Miglo, 2022. "Choice between IEO and ICO: Speed vs. Liquidity vs. Risk," FinTech, MDPI, vol. 1(3), pages 1-18, September.
    9. Leuz, C & Verrecchia, RE, 2000. "The economic consequences of increased disclosure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38, pages 91-124.
    10. Patrick Bolton & Xavier Freixas & Joel Shapiro, 2012. "The Credit Ratings Game," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 85-112, February.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13026 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2019. "Volatility co-movement between Bitcoin and Ether," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 221-227.
    13. Grimmer, Justin & Stewart, Brandon M., 2013. "Text as Data: The Promise and Pitfalls of Automatic Content Analysis Methods for Political Texts," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 267-297, July.
    14. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2016. "Textual Analysis in Accounting and Finance: A Survey," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 1187-1230, September.
    15. Sabrina T Howell & Marina Niessner & David Yermack & Jiang Wei, 2020. "Initial Coin Offerings: Financing Growth with Cryptocurrency Token Sales," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(9), pages 3925-3974.
    16. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    17. Sarah Kaplan & Keyvan Vakili, 2015. "The double-edged sword of recombination in breakthrough innovation," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1435-1457, October.
    18. Dyer, Travis & Lang, Mark & Stice-Lawrence, Lorien, 2017. "The evolution of 10-K textual disclosure: Evidence from Latent Dirichlet Allocation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 221-245.
    19. Adhami, Saman & Giudici, Giancarlo & Martinazzi, Stefano, 2018. "Why do businesses go crypto? An empirical analysis of initial coin offerings," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 64-75.
    20. Mohamed Chelli & Sylvain Durocher & Jacques Richard, 2014. "France's new economic regulations: insights from institutional legitimacy theory," Post-Print hal-01651207, HAL.
    21. Shrestha, Prabal & Arslan-Ayaydin, Özgür & Thewissen, James & Torsin, Wouter, 2021. "Institutions, regulations and initial coin offerings: An international perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 102-120.
    22. Kevin Campbell & Antonio Mínguez-Vera, 2008. "Gender Diversity in the Boardroom and Firm Financial Performance," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 83(3), pages 435-451, December.
    23. Verrecchia, Robert E., 2001. "Essays on disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-3), pages 97-180, December.
    24. Paul P Momtaz, 2020. "Initial Coin Offerings," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-30, May.
    25. Grossman, S J & Hart, O D, 1980. "Disclosure Laws and Takeover Bids," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 323-334, May.
    26. Kim, Incheol & Miller, Steve & Wan, Hong & Wang, Bin, 2016. "Drivers behind the monitoring effectiveness of global institutional investors: Evidence from earnings management," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 24-46.
    27. Peter Roosenboom & Tom van der Kolk & Abe de Jong, 2020. "What determines success in initial coin offerings?," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 161-183, June.
    28. Crawford, Vincent P & Sobel, Joel, 1982. "Strategic Information Transmission," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1431-1451, November.
    29. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    30. Hoberg, Gerard & Lewis, Craig, 2017. "Do fraudulent firms produce abnormal disclosure?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 58-85.
    31. Paul R. Milgrom, 1981. "Good News and Bad News: Representation Theorems and Applications," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(2), pages 380-391, Autumn.
    32. Fisch, Christian & Momtaz, Paul P., 2020. "Institutional investors and post-ICO performance: an empirical analysis of investor returns in initial coin offerings (ICOs)," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    33. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    34. Gigler, F, 1994. "Self-Enforcing Voluntary Disclosures," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 224-240.
    35. Holly Janes & Gary Longton & Margaret S. Pepe, 2009. "Accommodating covariates in receiver operating characteristic analysis," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 17-39, March.
    36. Nuria Reguera-Alvarado & Pilar Fuentes & Joaquina Laffarga, 2017. "Does Board Gender Diversity Influence Financial Performance? Evidence from Spain," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 337-350, March.
    37. Yang Bao & Anindya Datta, 2014. "Simultaneously Discovering and Quantifying Risk Types from Textual Risk Disclosures," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(6), pages 1371-1391, June.
    38. Mohamed Chelli & Sylvain Durocher & Jacques Richard, 2014. "France's new economic regulations: insights from institutional legitimacy theory," Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 283-316, February.
    39. Christian Masiak & Joern H. Block & Tobias Masiak & Matthias Neuenkirch & Katja N. Pielen, 0. "Initial coin offerings (ICOs): market cycles and relationship with bitcoin and ether," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-18.
    40. Anton Miglo, 2021. "STO vs. ICO: A Theory of Token Issues under Moral Hazard and Demand Uncertainty," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-35, May.
    41. Craig Lewis & Steven Young, 2019. "Fad or future? Automated analysis of financial text and its implications for corporate reporting," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 587-615, July.
    42. Allen H. Huang & Reuven Lehavy & Amy Y. Zang & Rong Zheng, 2018. "Analyst Information Discovery and Interpretation Roles: A Topic Modeling Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 2833-2855, June.
    43. Fisch, Christian, 2019. "Initial coin offerings (ICOs) to finance new ventures," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-22.
    44. Phillip C. Stocken, 2000. "Credibility of Voluntary Disclosure," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(2), pages 359-374, Summer.
    45. Bushee, Brian J. & Leuz, Christian, 2005. "Economic consequences of SEC disclosure regulation: evidence from the OTC bulletin board," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 233-264, June.
    46. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2010. "The worldwide governance indicators : methodology and analytical issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5430, The World Bank.
    47. Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G., 2001. "Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 405-440, September.
    48. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    49. Qiao, Xingzhi & Zhu, Huiming & Hau, Liya, 2020. "Time-frequency co-movement of cryptocurrency return and volatility: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    50. Benveniste, Lawrence M. & Spindt, Paul A., 1989. "How investment bankers determine the offer price and allocation of new issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361.
    51. Chen, Yan & Bellavitis, Cristiano, 2020. "Blockchain disruption and decentralized finance: The rise of decentralized business models," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 13(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shih‐Chu Chou & Zhe‐An Li & Tawei Wang & Ju‐Chun Yen, 2023. "How the quality of initial coin offering white papers influences fundraising: Using security token offerings white papers as a benchmark," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 3-18, January.
    2. Muneer M. Alshater & Mayank Joshipura & Rim El Khoury & Nohade Nasrallah, 2023. "Initial Coin Offerings: a Hybrid Empirical Review," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 891-908, October.
    3. Carolina Camassa, 2023. "Legal NLP Meets MiCAR: Advancing the Analysis of Crypto White Papers," Papers 2310.10333, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thewissen, James & Shrestha, Prabal & Torsin, Wouter & Pastwa, Anna M., 2022. "Unpacking the black box of ICO white papers: A topic modeling approach," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Florysiak, David & Schandlbauer, Alexander, 2022. "Experts or charlatans? ICO analysts and white paper informativeness," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Thomas Bourveau & Emmanuel T. De George & Atif Ellahie & Daniele Macciocchi, 2022. "The Role of Disclosure and Information Intermediaries in an Unregulated Capital Market: Evidence from Initial Coin Offerings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 129-167, March.
    4. Alexander Guzmán & Cristian Pinto-Gutiérrez & María-Andrea Trujillo, 2021. "Signaling Value through Gender Diversity: Evidence from Initial Coin Offerings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, January.
    5. Muneer M. Alshater & Mayank Joshipura & Rim El Khoury & Nohade Nasrallah, 2023. "Initial Coin Offerings: a Hybrid Empirical Review," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 891-908, October.
    6. Sapkota, Niranjan & Grobys, Klaus, 2023. "Fear sells: On the sentiment deceptions and fundraising success of initial coin offerings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Kolbe, Maura & Mansouri, Sasan & Momtaz, Paul P., 2022. "Why do video pitches matter in crowdfunding?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    8. Bongini, Paola & Osborne, Francesco & Pedrazzoli, Alessia & Rossolini, Monica, 2022. "A topic modelling analysis of white papers in security token offerings: Which topic matters for funding?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    9. Andrew J. Leone & Steve Rock & Michael Willenborg, 2007. "Disclosure of Intended Use of Proceeds and Underpricing in Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 111-153, March.
    10. Thakor, Anjan V., 2015. "Strategic information disclosure when there is fundamental disagreement," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 131-153.
    11. Hans B. Christensen & Luzi Hail & Christian Leuz, 2021. "Mandatory CSR and sustainability reporting: economic analysis and literature review," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 1176-1248, September.
    12. Christian Leuz & Peter D. Wysocki, 2016. "The Economics of Disclosure and Financial Reporting Regulation: Evidence and Suggestions for Future Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 525-622, May.
    13. de Andrés, Pablo & Arroyo, David & Correia, Ricardo & Rezola, Alvaro, 2022. "Challenges of the market for initial coin offerings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Chitsazan, Hasti & Bagheri, Afsaneh & Tajeddin, Mahdi, 2022. "Initial coin offerings (ICOs) success: Conceptualization, theories and systematic analysis of empirical studies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    15. Allen H. Huang & Reuven Lehavy & Amy Y. Zang & Rong Zheng, 2018. "Analyst Information Discovery and Interpretation Roles: A Topic Modeling Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 2833-2855, June.
    16. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    17. Wang, Tong & Zhao, Sheng & Zhou, Mengqiu, 2022. "Does soft information in expert ratings curb information asymmetry? Evidence from crowdfunding and early transaction phases of Initial Coin offerings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    18. Anton Miglo, 2022. "Choice between IEO and ICO: Speed vs. Liquidity vs. Risk," FinTech, MDPI, vol. 1(3), pages 1-18, September.
    19. James P. Ryans, 2021. "Textual classification of SEC comment letters," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 37-80, March.
    20. Li, Ken, 2022. "Textual fundamentals in earnings press releases," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ICOs ; White paper informativeness ; Topic modeling ; ICO regulation ; ICO analysts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ajf:louvlr:2022005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Séverine De Visscher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lfuclbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.