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Changes in the structure of world trade in agri-food products: evidence from gravity modelling in a long term perspective, 1950-2000


  • Raúl Serrano

    () (Department of Business Administration,Universidad de Zaragoza)

  • Vicente Pinilla

    () (Department of Applied Economics and Economic History, Universidad de Zaragoza)


This study examines the reasons for changes in the composition of international trade in agricultural and food products. We use a Gravity Model to compare the impact of the key factors in bilateral agri-food trade, which we split into three main product groups, between 1963 and 2000 for a representative sample of 40 countries. Our results show how intervention and/or protectionism, the level of participation in intra-industrial trade and the effects of national and per capita income growth have determined the rise in high value-added products and processed goods and the declining share of traditional, basic commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Raúl Serrano & Vicente Pinilla, 2009. "Changes in the structure of world trade in agri-food products: evidence from gravity modelling in a long term perspective, 1950-2000," Documentos de Trabajo (DT-AEHE) 0905, Asociacion Espa–ola de Historia Economica.
  • Handle: RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:0905

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Rosa Duarte & Vicente Pinilla & Ana Serrano, 2014. "Looking backward to look forward: water use and economic growth from a long-term perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 212-224, January.
    2. Giovanni Federico, 2005. "Introduction to Feeding the World: An Economic History of World Agriculture, 1800-2000," Introductory Chapters,in: Feeding the World: An Economic History of World Agriculture, 1800-2000 Princeton University Press.
    3. Santiago-Caballero, Carlos, 2013. "Trapped By Nature: Provincial Grain Yields In Spain In The Mid 18th Century," Revista de Historia Económica, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(03), pages 359-386, December.
    4. Alfonso Herranz Loncán, 2004. "La dotación de infraestructuras en España, (1844-1935)," Estudios de Historia Económica, Banco de España;Estudios de Historia Económica Homepage, number 45, December.
    5. Duarte, Rosa & Pinilla, Vicente & Serrano, Ana, 2014. "The water footprint of the Spanish agricultural sector: 1860–2010," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 200-207.
    6. Pinilla, Vicente & Ayuda, María-Isabel, 2010. "Taking advantage of globalization? Spain and the building of the international market in Mediterranean horticultural products, 1850–1935," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(02), pages 239-274, August.
    7. Duarte, Rosa & Pinilla, Vicente & Serrano, Ana, 2014. "The effect of globalisation on water consumption: A case study of the Spanish virtual water trade, 1849–1935," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 96-105.
    8. Duarte, Rosa & Pinilla, Vicente & Serrano, Ana, 2013. "Is there an environmental Kuznets curve for water use? A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 518-527.
    9. Ernesto Clar & Raúl Serrano & Vicente Pinilla, 2015. "El comercio agroalimentario español en la segunda globalización, 1951-2011," Historia Agraria. Revista de Agricultura e Historia Rural, Sociedad Española de Historia Agraria, issue 65, pages 149-186, april.
    10. Santiago-Caballero, Carlos, 2012. "Provincial grain yields in Spain, 1750-2009," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wp12-04, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    11. Miguel Martín-Retortillo & Vicente Pinilla, 2013. "Patterns and causes of growth of European agricultural production, 1950-2005," Documentos de Trabajo (DT-AEHE) 1302, Asociacion Espa–ola de Historia Economica.
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    Cited by:

    1. Raúl Serrano & Vicente Pinilla, 2014. "New directions of trade for the agri-food industry: a disaggregated approach for different income countries, 1963–2000," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-22, December.

    More about this item


    Agri-food trade; Gravity Model; GATT; Regional Trade Agreements; home market effect;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative

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