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Weather and Yield, 1950-94: Relationships, Distributions, and Data

Author

Listed:
  • Teigen, Lloyd D.
  • Thomas, Milton, Jr.

Abstract

Nonlinear functions of weather explain almost all significant variations in crop yield. Corn, soybean, and spring wheat responses were estimated. Yields respond to monthly temperature and precipitation during May - September. Farm size is also important. Farms that harvest more acreage get higher yields. The yield distribution depends on the probability distribution of weather and the nonlinear response function. Temperature data follow a normal (symmetric) probability distribution, while precipitation data are better described by a (nonsymmetric) gamma distribution. The probability distribution for crop yields contains components that are normal, log-normal, chi-squared, and other random variables. Monthly temperature and precipitation data for 1950-94 are aggregated to State and regional estimates, using either harvested cropland or geographic area in 344 sub-State climatic divisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Teigen, Lloyd D. & Thomas, Milton, Jr., 1995. "Weather and Yield, 1950-94: Relationships, Distributions, and Data," Staff Reports 278796, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerssr:278796
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.278796
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    Cited by:

    1. Tannura, Michael A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2008. "Weather, Technology, and Corn and Soybean Yields in the U.S. Corn Belt," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports 37501, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    2. Clop-Gallart, M. Merce & Juarez-Rubio, Francisco, 2005. "Elicitation of Subjective Crop Yield PDF for DSS Implementation," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24561, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Kiker, Greg & Ranjan, Ram, 2006. "Decision Support System for Soybean Rust (Phakopsora pachyrhizi) Management using QnD," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21248, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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