Migration and Aging Across the Rural-Urban Continuum

Population and demographic change can create both challenges and opportunities for rural communities. This report studies migration and aging patterns across U.S. counties from 1980 to 2020 using detailed data on age-specific migration across the rural-urban continuum. As of 2020, nonmetropolitan counties were significantly older (35 percent over age 55) than metropolitan counties (29 percent over age 55) due to age-specific migration over the previous three decades that saw younger people moving towards more urban areas and older people towards rural places. Nonmetropolitan counties lost prime working age people (age 25–54) in the 2010s despite attracting them previously. Furthermore, fewer retirement-aged people moved to nonmetropolitan counties in the 2010s than in previous decades as part of a national trend of lower migration, despite the large number of Baby Boomers reaching retirement age that decade. Rural retirement and recreation destination typology counties experienced in-migration among people aged 30–79, while farming and manufacturing typology counties saw net out-migration at younger ages. Using a decomposition analysis, this report finds that population aging in the 2010s was driven almost entirely by aging in place, rather than migration like in previous decades. Counties to which older people moved tended to be correlated with better economic and health indicators (but higher housing costs) than those counties younger people moved away from or those that experienced significant aging in place. These insights help inform policymaker decisions related to rural prosperity.