Energy-economy implications of the Glasgow pledges: a global stocktake of COP26

The 2015 Paris Agreement establishes a framework in which countries submit their policy targets to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and further invites parties to submit long-term low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission development strategies. In this paper, we take stock of recent updates in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and long-term low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission development strategies (LTS) announced leading up to and during the Conference of the Parties (COP 26) in Glasgow, in November 2021. We focus on the transition of G20 countries, which accounted for nearly 75% of global GHG emissions since 1990, assessing three different scenarios: (i) current policies; (ii) announced policy targets (NDC-LTS); and (iii) a 1.5°C-compatible pathway. We further analyse decarbonisation drivers and energy system transformation metrics within each scenario, highlighting both the policy options to bring emissions in line with ambitious climate targets, and the associated labour market transition. The regional focus reveals heterogeneous decarbonisation pathways, mitigation options and emission gaps, informing the ongoing first “global stocktake” under the Paris Agreement. Delivering on both NDC and LTS targets could limit the temperature increase of global mean temperature to about 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, reducing the ambition gap in the long run. The results furthermore suggest that the scale and concentration of cross-sectoral employment transition could warrant careful attention when designing policies to close the remaining implementation gap between current policies and climate targets.