Strategy Options for Angola's Agricultural Sector after 27 Years of War: A Perception Based Field Study

The decline in agricultural output over the years and the subsequent pervasive food crisis in most of Africa have motivated governments and international organizations to develop a variety of strategies, policy alternatives and programs aimed at promoting agricultural production and food security. Many of these strategies have been conceived and implemented by international organizations, and in some cases the strategies have fail to address the root cause of failure of the agricultural sector to perform to its potential. Therefore, this field study uses scenario analysis to engage key players in the agriculture industry to identify causes of Angola’s loss of production capacity over the years, the factors needed to revitalize the agricultural-led economy, factors that can help stabilize the agricultural sector and conditions required for the development and coordination of the food supply chain in Angola. The framework provided in the paper was based on an evaluation of perceptions of future demand for locally produced agricultural products; the country’s supply response capability; the role of the informal and formal markets; infrastructure needs; and the development of formal supply chains for domestic and export markets. The methodology used was an adaptation of a methodology used in Industry Strategic Planning and Coordination, and the Technological Demands Determination by Prospective Analysis. The study revealed that in spite of its high resource endowment, Angola will first need to address institutional and structural agricultural development constraints and develop systems that allow better coordination of development efforts among institutions, before it is able to produce food for export markets. The development priority for the next five years includes creating conditions that stimulate local production, help the country produce enough to become food self sufficient, and gradually reduce food imports. Nevertheless, the production for import substitution should not preclude efforts towards targeting export niche markets.