Growing Interdependence of the World Food Economy: A 20 Year Perspective

The evolution of the world food economy between 1980 and 2000 is analyzed based on results obtained with the basic linked system of national and regional models developed by the Food and Agriculture Program of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Two scenario runs are made. In one scenario, past behaviour of the main dnvmg forces of the world food system is assumed to remain in the future as it was obseived in the past. According to that scenario, world trade in agricultural products continues to grow over the next 15 years. The developed market economies increase their exports of cereals and livestock products, while the developing countries import those commodities in growing quantities. The reverse pattern in trade can be found for other food and nonfood agricultural products. The CMEA and China do not show such a clear pattern of changes in trade. In terms of economic self-sufficiency in agricultural products, the CMEA shows an mcrease and Chma a decrease. The other scenario assumes that aid is tripled to the developmg countries from countries with a trade surplus. The donor countries receive a return from that aid large enough to meet the costs of the additional aid But a multiplier effect cannot be observed. The impact of increasmg aid on the receivmg countries vanes from country to country and is largely dependent on investment behaviour.