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Agricultural policy analysis in Finland with the AGMEMOD model: Lessons to be learnt?


  • Niemi, Jyrki S.
  • Kettunen, Lauri


The objective of this paper is to assess empirically the impacts of further reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the agri-food sector in Finland. To meet the objective, an econometric model for Finnish agriculture - built as a part of the AGMEMOD project - was utilised. The projection and policy simulations presented in the paper demonstrate that the model provides the basis for relatively straightforward baseline projection, and an initial framework for agricultural policy analysis. Yet, there remains substantial scope for further work on the model. In particular, the effects of big policy shocks are clearly not adequately captured by the model. The linear equations of supply together with low elasticities estimated from historical data generate simulation results, which do not in our opinion fully capture farmers’ reactions to these changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Niemi, Jyrki S. & Kettunen, Lauri, 2011. "Agricultural policy analysis in Finland with the AGMEMOD model: Lessons to be learnt?," 122nd Seminar, February 17-18, 2011, Ancona, Italy 99367, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa122:99367

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    policy analysis; econometric models; Finland; commodity markets; Agricultural and Food Policy; C54; E17; Q18.;

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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