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Agricultural Production and Food Consumption in China: A Long-term Projection

Author

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  • Sheng, Yu
  • Song, Ligang

Abstract

This paper uses a multi-country and multi-product partial equilibrium model to forecast food supply and demand in China and its impact on food trade in 2050. The model endogenises shifting consumption preferences due to China’s demographic changes and real incomes growth caused by ongoing urbanisation and industrialisation. We show that total food demand in China is doubling by 2050 and its structure will shift towards more luxurious goods, away from necessities. While improved productivity growth will enable domestic production to rise, imports are still likely to play an important role in reducing the “quality” gap in future Chinese food demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheng, Yu & Song, Ligang, 2017. "Agricultural Production and Food Consumption in China: A Long-term Projection," 2017 ASAE 9th International Conference, January 11-13, Bangkok, Thailand 284803, Asian Society of Agricultural Economists (ASAE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:asae17:284803
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.284803
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    Cited by:

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    4. Fa Wang & Haifeng Wang & Joung Hyung Cho, 2022. "Consumer Preference for Yogurt Packaging Design Using Conjoint Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-13, March.
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    6. Yuanyuan Chen & Changhe Lu, 2019. "Future Grain Consumption Trends and Implications on Grain Security in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-14, September.
    7. Zhaohua Zhang & Roshini Brizmohun & Gang Li & Ping Wang, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-17, March.
    8. Duan Ran & Zhanlu Zhang & Yuhan Jing, 2022. "A Study on the Spatial–Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Non-Grain Production in China’s Major Grain-Producing Provinces," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-16, December.
    9. Shaoyi Lu & Taoufik Bouraoui, 2024. "Factors impacting consumer confidence: Evidence from China," Post-Print hal-04818095, HAL.
    10. Zemin Zhang & Changhe Lu, 2020. "Clustering Analysis of Soybean Production to Understand its Spatiotemporal Dynamics in the North China Plain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-15, July.
    11. Changming Cheng & Qiang Gao & Yuqing Qiu, 2022. "Assessing the Ability of Agricultural Socialized Services to Promote the Protection of Cultivated Land among Farmers," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, August.
    12. Gao, Yukun & Zhao, Hongfang & Zhao, Chuang & Hu, Guohua & Zhang, Han & Liu, Xue & Li, Nan & Hou, Haiyan & Li, Xia, 2022. "Spatial and temporal variations of maize and wheat yield gaps and their relationships with climate in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    13. Zhang, Daojun & Yang, Wanjing & Kang, Dingrong & Zhang, Han, 2023. "Spatial-temporal characteristics and policy implication for non-grain production of cultivated land in Guanzhong Region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    14. Xinru Han & Yongfu Chen & Xiudong Wang, 2022. "Impacts of China’s bioethanol policy on the global maize market: a partial equilibrium analysis to 2030," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(1), pages 147-163, February.
    15. Yin, Zhengqing & Li, Bo & Li, Shufei & Ding, Junqi & Zhang, Lingxian, 2022. "Key influencing factors of green vegetable consumption in Beijing, China," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    16. repec:mth:jas888:v:7:y:2019:i:2:p:11-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Xi He & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid & Dermot Hayes & Minghao Li & Wendong Zhang, 2022. "China's corn and biofuel policies and agricultural trade: Projections from an international agricultural commodity market model," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 970-989, October.
    18. Tiejun Dai & Shuo Shan, 2020. "Path Analysis of Beijing’s Dematerialization Development Based on System Dynamics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-23, January.
    19. Yuanzhi Guo & Jieyong Wang, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Changes of Chemical Fertilizer Application and Its Environmental Risks in China from 2000 to 2019," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-14, November.
    20. Huaquan Zhang & Abbas Ali Chandio & Fan Yang & Yashuang Tang & Martinson Ankrah Twumasi & Ghulam Raza Sargani, 2022. "Modeling the Impact of Climatological Factors and Technological Revolution on Soybean Yield: Evidence from 13-Major Provinces of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-16, May.
    21. Huaquan Zhang & Ruijia Jin & Abbas Ali Chandio & Martinson Ankrah Twumasi, 2025. "A step toward the modern and sustainable agriculture: Evaluating the impact of information and communication technology on cereal production in China," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 1989-2003, April.
    22. Wu, Shu & Ding, Song, 2021. "Efficiency improvement, structural change, and energy intensity reduction: Evidence from Chinese agricultural sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • N55 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Asia including Middle East
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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