Quantifying the regional impact of export controls in Southern African maize markets

Despite well-researched benefits and stated policy goals of increasing intra-regional trade, African policy makers continue to rely on export controls in an effort to keep prices at tolerable levels. Within the Southern African region, Zambia has been particularly prone to such policy action, typically in the maize sector, which has strong connotations to food security. Against the backdrop of drought-induced supply shortages of white maize in Southern Africa in 2016, this study applied a partial equilibrium model with bilateral trade flows to simulate the impact on prices and trade flow of imposing export controls in Zambia relative to an open trade scenario. The goal of reducing prices for domestic consumers was achieved at the expense of producers, who lose the market-induced price increase that would offset some revenue loss if trade was allowed to flow freely. Contrary to most previous literature on Zambian export controls, the impact of Zambian policy was also related to neighbouring markets, highlighting higher prices, reduced consumption and changes to typical trade flows. Price increases in neighbouring countries supported area expansion in subsequent years, inducing a shift in production towards these countries and highlighting the detrimental impact of trade control policies on long term production growth. Key words: Export controls, Partial equilibrium simulation, bilateral trade modelling