IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aare11/100554.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The use of an integrated model of pest spread and commodity markets to estimate the cost of a pest outbreak

Author

Listed:
  • Hafi, Ahmed

Abstract

There are significant benefits in integrating a biological spread model into economic assessment of the cost of pest incursions (such as varroa mite or Mexican feather grass) on agricultural industries. To illustrate the potential usefulness of an integrated approach, a generic bioeconomic model is developed by linking a simple stochastic pest spread module, built around a set of logistic spread equations, and a partial equilibrium module of the market for an affected agricultural industry. The pest spread module estimates the damage over time, while the partial equilibrium module estimates the resultant effect of a reduction in supply on the commodity market. The estimated effects on market variables are then used to estimate the cost of a pest outbreak. In this study, the cost of a hypothetical pest outbreak is estimated for three scenarios: (1) do nothing; (2) control actions to slow the spread; and (3) control actions aimed at eradication of the pest. The estimates are derived for a large number of random values of the spread rates specified in the logistic functions. The study also presents the frequency distribution of benefits of implementing the two control strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Hafi, Ahmed, 2011. "The use of an integrated model of pest spread and commodity markets to estimate the cost of a pest outbreak," 2011 Conference (55th), February 8-11, 2011, Melbourne, Australia 100554, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare11:100554
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.100554
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/100554/files/Hafi%20A.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.100554?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aare11:100554. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.