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Optimal Path for Global Land Use under Climate Change Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Steinbuks, J.
  • Cai, Y.
  • Elliott, J.W.
  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Judd, K.L.

Abstract

This study seeks assess how the uncertainties associated with the un- derlying biophysical processes in uence the optimal profile of land use over the next century, in light of potential irreversibility in these deci- sions. Our analysis is based on a dynamic stochastic model of global land use, and employs 3 modeling scenarios constructed using global crop simulation and climate models. The results of the deterministic model show that climate impacts appear to have mixed effects on yields - higher temperatures hurt food production but this effect is partially offset by greater CO2 fertilization effect. Declining food crop yields result in rela- tively small expansion of cropland and accumulated GHG emissions from land use change. We then contrast this optimal path to that obtained when the uncertainty is not ignored, thereby demonstrating significance of factoring uncertainty in the optimization stage.

Suggested Citation

  • Steinbuks, J. & Cai, Y. & Elliott, J.W. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Judd, K.L., 2013. "Optimal Path for Global Land Use under Climate Change Uncertainty," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151413, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:151413
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/151413
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; crop yields; dynamic stochastic models; global land use; uncertainty; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C61; Q15; Q23; Q26; Q40; Q54;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q26 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Recreational Aspects of Natural Resources
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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