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An Agent-Based Model of Climate-Induced Agricultural Labor Migration


  • Cai, Ruohong
  • Oppenheimer, Michael


Using an agent-based model, we simulate the climate-induced agricultural labor migration for alternative future climate scenarios. For each agent, the probability of migration is calculated as a function of a set of relevant factors using a logistic regression model. Historical U.S. agricultural employment data was used to calibrate the model. The simulation result showed that larger crop yield reduction induced by climate change tends to generate larger migration flows. Furthermore, we observed that the network effects tend to forecast a larger migration difference between alternative climate scenarios.

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  • Cai, Ruohong & Oppenheimer, Michael, 2013. "An Agent-Based Model of Climate-Induced Agricultural Labor Migration," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150972, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:150972

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    1. Anderson, Soren T., 2012. "The demand for ethanol as a gasoline substitute," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 151-168.
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    6. Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Burnquist, Heloisa Lee & Vian, Carlos Eduardo de Freitas, 2006. "Bioenergy and the Rise of Sugarcane-Based Ethanol in Brazil," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 21(2).
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    More about this item


    Agent-based model; Climate change; Agricultural labor migration; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Labor and Human Capital;

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