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Conflict, Aid and Poverty: Cause, Effect and Prediction


  • Kibriya, Shahriar R.
  • Bessler, David A.
  • Price, Edwin
  • Sen Gupta, Rajorshi


Recent studies and reports suggest that foreign aid/intervention has been somewhat futile in eradicating conflict. In this study, we develop a simultaneous donor/recipient model of foreign aid and terrorism. Thereafter, we extend our theoretical propositions through a machine learning algorithm of inductive causation. We find that terrorism increases foreign aid, however foreign assistance is futile in mitigating terrorism. Additionally, socio-economic factors influence foreign aid given by the donors. But foreign assistance is unsuccessful in enhancing the livelihoods of the underprivileged. We conclude that foreign aid policies need to be more efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Kibriya, Shahriar R. & Bessler, David A. & Price, Edwin & Sen Gupta, Rajorshi, 2010. "Conflict, Aid and Poverty: Cause, Effect and Prediction," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61898, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea10:61898

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