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Forecasting Irrigation Water Demand: A Structural And Time Series Analysis


  • Adhikari, Murali
  • Houston, Jack E.
  • Paudel, Laxmi
  • Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar
  • Paudel, Biswo Nath
  • Devkota, Nirmala


An expected utility model was developed to capture the impacts of wealth, other economic, and institutional factors on irrigation acreage allocation decisions. Predicted water demand is derived from an expected utility structural model and various ARIMA models. No significant differences arise between forecasted irrigation acreage and, thereby, amount of forecasted water demand between econometric and time series models. However, estimates of water demand differ significantly from a Blaney-Criddle-based physical model. Keywords: water forecasting, acreage response, water slippage, BC formula

Suggested Citation

  • Adhikari, Murali & Houston, Jack E. & Paudel, Laxmi & Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar & Paudel, Biswo Nath & Devkota, Nirmala, 2003. "Forecasting Irrigation Water Demand: A Structural And Time Series Analysis," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22109, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea03:22109

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    1. Houston, Jack E. & McIntosh, Christopher S. & Stavriotis, Paul A. & Turner, Steve C., 1999. "Leading Indicators of Regional Cotton Acreage Response: Structural and Time Series Modeling Results," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(03), pages 507-517, December.
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